Thanks to Brownie for the heads up on the Hardrock registration, which is now online. Last year, the chances of getting in through the complex Hardrock lottery for folks like me who have just one entry in the hat was 18%. I expect the odds to be as bad or worse for 2010. Drawing for Hardrock is early February.
Speaking of terrible lottery odds, the final tally of entrants for the Western States lottery is 1,690. Total slots available: 400, with 125 places offered to various runners who qualify to run the event without having to go through the lottery. Assuming 100 take up that offer, that leaves a total of 300 spots available in the lottery, which by my elementary statistics calculations equals a 17% chance of getting in. I'm sure that if I had advanced statistics skills, I could then go on to offer a percentage chance that I will be drawn in one, both or neither of the lotteries, but I don't so I won't. Suffice to say, the odds are against. Drawing for WS100 is 23 days hence.
And on to the third lottery (!). This year, the Miwok 100k race committee has instituted a lottery for their event, so if you want to get in on that race, the entry period opens up Friday and closes two weeks later, with results being posted Dec. 1.
Phew! Kind of frustrating to have to wait on all these lotteries to get an understanding of how my 2010 season will shape up, but that's the way it is, so best to just roll with it and keep running. If I were a gambling man (!), I guess I'd be betting on the old pulse-and-a-check standby, Leadville, to be my 100-mile event for 2010. We'll see.