Thanks to Brownie for the heads up on the Hardrock registration, which is now online. Last year, the chances of getting in through the complex Hardrock lottery for folks like me who have just one entry in the hat was 18%. I expect the odds to be as bad or worse for 2010. Drawing for Hardrock is early February.
Speaking of terrible lottery odds, the final tally of entrants for the Western States lottery is 1,690. Total slots available: 400, with 125 places offered to various runners who qualify to run the event without having to go through the lottery. Assuming 100 take up that offer, that leaves a total of 300 spots available in the lottery, which by my elementary statistics calculations equals a 17% chance of getting in. I'm sure that if I had advanced statistics skills, I could then go on to offer a percentage chance that I will be drawn in one, both or neither of the lotteries, but I don't so I won't. Suffice to say, the odds are against. Drawing for WS100 is 23 days hence.
And on to the third lottery (!). This year, the Miwok 100k race committee has instituted a lottery for their event, so if you want to get in on that race, the entry period opens up Friday and closes two weeks later, with results being posted Dec. 1.
Phew! Kind of frustrating to have to wait on all these lotteries to get an understanding of how my 2010 season will shape up, but that's the way it is, so best to just roll with it and keep running. If I were a gambling man (!), I guess I'd be betting on the old pulse-and-a-check standby, Leadville, to be my 100-mile event for 2010. We'll see.
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You should consider the Bear over Leadville. Although it is a bit of a drive the course is better with much more actual trail. The point-to-point is nice as well.
ReplyDeleteThe Bear isn't out of the equation, but that will depend on if I get into Hardrock. If I get into Hardrock, there is a strong chance I add three more 100s to the list for 2010.
ReplyDeleteI guess Leadville is more about the convenience and competition than anything else.
Yeah, Hardrock is pretty easy so you should do a few other 100's to make up for it...
ReplyDeleteHa, no that wasn't my logic - more along the lines of completing the Rocky Mountain Slam.
ReplyDeleteIf you get into HR, let's do the Rocky Mountain Slam! Bighorn, Hardrock, Leadville, Bear!
ReplyDeleteI'm planning Lake City on the solstice so no Bighorn - anyway been there done that. Thinking Hardrock, Leadville, Wasatch, Bear.
ReplyDeleteyou guys are giving me bad ideas :)
ReplyDeleteNick,
ReplyDeleteNick, the entry fee for WS100 is $295, but what is the most you would pay? I'd love to be able to run an Econ. experiment to see how much people would really pay to race in these races that have lottery.
With the NYC Marathon, I bet you could raise it to $400 and it would still sell out.
Simon - yeah, it's not cheap, in fact it is the most expensive 100 in the country, but then it is also the most storied and offers by far the most hoopla of any 100 miler in the country - not unlike The NYC Marathon in the world of marathoning.
ReplyDeleteHaving said that, 100 milers in general are expensive, probably averaging around $200. So definitely a premium, but as with most things, you get what you pay for. Hard to say where I would draw the line, but I had to think twice about whether or not I was willing to drop $300 on one race. Not much more probably.
If you wanted to do Badwater, it would have cost you $500 two years ago (more now I'm sure) - and that's just the tip of the iceberg. Most spend in excess of $5k when all the logistical costs are factored in.
I think you are right about NYC Marathon pricing, especially when you consider that the pricing for international participants is already near the $400 mark. I guess you are paying for the experience as much as you are the race.
My typical cut-offs, or reflection points, with regards to race prices (unless they offer something out of the ordinary): 5k/10k - $20; half marathon - $40; marathon - $75-80; 50 miler - $80-85; 100 milers - $200. I would imagine my top end is lower than most.
I think San Juan is $100. Well worth it though.
ReplyDeleteYeah, San Juan falls into the offering-something-out-of-the-ordinary category. Plus, it's hugely popular and has a cap: market forces work in its favor just as at NYC and WS100. However, good to see they are not gouging. I can think of a couple of other CO 50s that charge more but offer less.
ReplyDeleteHow I wish the Miwok entry period was AFTER the Western States drawing. I'd like to do one, but not the other... and States is my preference. Perhaps I'll have to figure on not getting into WS and apply to Miwok.
ReplyDeleteFYI, I just double checked Miwok and signup is now open until December 13. Time to wait for the WS100 lottery after all.
ReplyDeleteBryon - yeah, a bet there are quite few people waiting to find out about WS before putting in for other lotteries. I plan to roll from the WS lottery (assuming I don't get in) to the Miwok lottery to the Hardrock lottery, and will probably end up running Leadville. Ho, hum.
ReplyDeleteI bet Miwok and a bunch of other races will get a boost in registrations once the WS lottery is over. Hope to see you at a race or two this year
I am not an expert on statistics but if I remember correctly (assuming 16% chance for WS and 18% for Hardrock) the odds of getting into both are 2.8% and the odds for getting into one of them are 31%.
ReplyDelete