The entry period for the Western States Lottery closes tonight at midnight, so if you're on the fence it's time to make up your mind. As the lottery works, it doesn't actually cost anything to enter, so there's actually a bit of extra procrastination time as I assume you can decline the entry if you win in the lottery without losing any kind of deposit. Seems like a weird way to do it considering the number of people wanting to get in, as it's only going to increase the number of entrants and then cause additional headaches when people start to turn down their slots when it comes to time to chunk up the cash, but as they say ... whatever!
So in 2006, there were approximately 1,000 entrants and the chances of picking up one of the 400 spots was 37%, meaning there were just 30-40 spots taken by those who qualified outside the lottery (top ten from previous year, two-time lottery losers).
As of this morning there were 1,624 names in the lottery. If we call that 1,700 by the end of the day and assume that 60 spots are taken up before the lottery happens on December 5, that leaves 1,640 names in the hat for 340 spots. I make that a close to one in five shot of getting in: a roll of the (five-sided) dice.
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May the force be with you. If I don't die at Pb next year, I will try and enter the lotto just for kicks.
ReplyDeleteCrossing my fingers too, but I think the odds are a bit lower than that. There's about 127 autos give or take (70 TTL's, 10-20 top 10's, 10-15 UltraCup, 15 aid stations, raffle winners etc...) so maybe 16% if we're lucky...
ReplyDeleteI just further reduced the odds...although I'm not really crossing my fingers
ReplyDeleteI see rocky is on your schedule - looks like you've got the 100 mile bug!
Nick - I'm rethinking Rocky - might do Bandera 100k instead. Wanna come? Out with Ryan this weekend if you fancy it. Not sure what he has planned but I'll be joining him for 12/13. Be a good chance to talk 2010 races and travel plans. If you don't have it already, my email is on the profile page of this site.
ReplyDeletePatrick - So more like a roll of a six-sided dice, or picking a dog without looking at form at the dog track. Be much cheaper to run Leadville or Hardrock anyway.
You'd have a great time at Bandera. That was my first run over 50 miles.
ReplyDeleteBrownie - if you check back, how does it compare to, say, Collegiate Peaks or Fruita? Looks fairly tame on the climb front, but you never know until you run these things.
ReplyDeleteYup, I had planned for RR 100 as well, but I think I'm out too. If WS doesn't pan out, Leadville it shall be, but I hope it's snowing and not hot like this year...
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